2011 NFL Draft’s Top 10 Potential Busts

Buyers had always better beware when it comes to the NFL draft where one disastrous pick can set a franchise back years. Which players are the biggest risks in this draft class? We examine.

10. Nick Fairley (Auburn, DT)

Fairley carries with him all the red flags – and may cause referees to throw unnecessary yellow ones – for a potential bust. Was he a one-year wonder for title-winning Auburn? Even if his production remains, his character is an issue. He has a hot temper on the field and doesn’t like to put in extra work off it. Will Fairley mirror Albert Haynesworth’s time in Tennessee or his time in Washington?

9. Corey Liuget (Illinois, DT)

Liuget is a late-bloomer, at least in the eyes of NFL talent evaluators. He didn’t project as a great NFL player while in college, nor does he have great size for a defensive tackle. So, what’s to like? He had a couple good workouts and had two massive games against Michigan State and Baylor before bolting early for the league.

8. Phil Taylor (Baylor, DT)

At nearly 350 pounds, Taylor may eat himself into the second round. His transfer from Penn State, where he was involved in an off-campus fight, doesn’t help Taylor’s cause. He does have the physical gifts, but relying on physical gifts only produces results in high school and college. And with the NFL lockout looming over the league, Taylor might show up in September closer to 400 pounds.

7. Da’Quan Bowers (Clemson, DE)

First, there are questions about Bowers’ failure to produce over the length of his college career. Is he yet another dreaded one-year wonder? Even if he’s not, a poor pro day following arthroscopic knee surgery helped his stock plummet even further. After being projected as a top five pick, Bowers has slid down to the mid-first round on many draft boards.

6. Jimmy Smith (Colorado, CB)

Smith is your prototypical draft question mark. Most experts agree that his talent places him somewhere in the first round. But off-field issues – underage drinking and a positive drug test in 2007 – leave many NFL teams skeptical. In short, they wonder if Smith is more trouble than he’s worth and the second coming of Pacman Jones.

5. Adrian Clayborn (Iowa, DE)

The NFL draft rewards who’s hot. “What have you done for me lately?” might as well be the league’s motto. Well, not much in his case, as he totaled all of four sacks last season after 11 in 2009. Clayborn’s big senior season letdown harmed the perception of his ability. But in many cases, poor play can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Beware of a player trending down, a direction to which Clayborn seems to be headed.

4. Ryan Mallett (Arkansas, QB)

Mallet’s curse is his gift. Yes, his off-field issues could play into an NFL flop but, in reality, Mallet’s big arm allowed him to form bad habits in college. Mallet is big, strong and looks like an NFL QB, but it may be nothing more than fool’s gold if he can’t prove himself by reading defenses at an elite level. Throw in a history of Bobby Petrino quarterbacks not performing at the next level (Brian Brohm, Chris Redman, Stefen LeFors, Dave Ragone) and the questions around Mallett are as big as his arm.

3. Tyron Smith (USC, OT)

Smith is an underclassman and project at offensive tackle, a position at which NFL teams like to draft players who can help right away, especially in the first round. Could he eventually be a Jonathan Ogden-type player? Absolutely. But if Smith were to play right away, he’d risk embarrassing himself or injuring his own quarterback. Especially since he played right tackle in college but will undoubtedly be asked to cover the blind side in the pros. Just ask Michael Oher the damage that can be done to a left tackle’s physique if he isn’t properly prepared to play in the NFL. Smith bulked up for the scouting combine and he’ll need more than extra weight to succeed in the pros.

2. Jake Locker (Washington, QB)

Locker did NFL teams – and not himself – a favor by staying in school despite being the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft. It allowed some time for his flaws to emerge. Well, pretty much all of his flaws. His accuracy has always been an issue, but it was magnified at the beginning of last season when he went 4-20 against Nebraska. Locker is a great athlete but a reported 20 on the Wonderlic test now raises questions about whether he is capable of running an NFL offense and reading opposing defenses.

1. Cam Newton (Auburn, QB)

Newton has the biggest potential for bust in this draft because the expectations surrounding him may be unattainable and the bad situation he’ll be walking into.

Yes, he’s coming off a Heisman Trophy and an undefeated season that produced a national championship. In fact, it was one of the best seasons for a quarterback in NCAA history, both statistically- and aesthetically-speaking. There’s no doubt Cam Newton’s ceiling is very high.

But here’s a quick review of all the red flags surrounding Newton leading up to draft day: Started just one-year of major college football, has questionable accuracy, ran a Sandlot offense at Auburn, probably headed to a Panthers team with a shoddy offensive line and will be thrown right into the fire there since Carolina doesn’t have any other viable QB options.

What could go wrong?